Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 27?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 39¢ · $620 held · ends Oct 27

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$619.87

Combined PnL

$176.26

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$329.6

Total Shares647

Combined PnL+$176.62

No5 traders

Total Value$290.27

Total Shares352

Combined PnL-$0.37

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$152.98	$329.6	+$176.62	46% 554-641 (1195)
24 241532532432	Noavg 61.8¢	$161.87	$155.12	-$6.75	61% 1522-962 (2484)
Istaroth	Noavg 71.7¢	$104.79	$103.3	-$0.89	33% 273-556 (829)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 48¢	$9.54	$13.71	+$4.17	50% 1620-1612 (3232)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 51.4¢	$9.46	$12.41	+$2.95	57% 12899-9813 (22712)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 48.7¢	$5.58	$5.74	+$0.15	53% 6226-5465 (11691)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$152.98

Value

$329.6

PnL

+$176.62

Record

46%

554-641 (1195)

241532532432

Invested

$161.87

Value

$155.12

PnL

-$6.75

Record

61%

1522-962 (2484)

Istaroth

Invested

$104.79

Value

$103.3

PnL

-$0.89

Record

33%

273-556 (829)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$4.17

Record

50%

1620-1612 (3232)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$12.41

PnL

+$2.95

Record

57%

12899-9813 (22712)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

6226-5465 (11691)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.