Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on November 8?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 20¢ · $706 held · ended Nov 8

Yes80¢No20¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$705.52

Combined PnL

$54.97

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 20¢

-71% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$593.39

Total Shares804

Combined PnL+$48.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$112.13

Total Shares103

Combined PnL+$6.57

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 80.2¢	$535.2	$479.82	+$42.6	39% 900-1436 (2336)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 62.5¢	$73.36	$74.82	+$1.46	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 53.7¢	$53.04	$54.58	+$3.38	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$38.35	$21.52	+$0.93	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$16.28	$20.89	+$4.61	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$11.3	$11.3	-$0	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 72.1¢	$8.3	$8.96	+$0.66	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$7.63	$7.46	-$0.17	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$7.69	$7.13	-$0.55	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 16.9¢	$2.84	$4.29	+$1.45	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 21.7¢	$4.86	$4.25	-$0.61	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 24.6¢	$2.4	$3.27	+$0.87	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.78	-$0.03	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 29.3¢	$5.28	$2.28	+$0.25	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$2.06	$2.17	+$0.11	36% 1206-2165 (3371)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$535.2

Value

$479.82

PnL

+$42.6

Record

39%

900-1436 (2336)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.36

Value

$74.82

PnL

+$1.46

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$53.04

Value

$54.58

PnL

+$3.38

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$38.35

Value

$21.52

PnL

+$0.93

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.28

Value

$20.89

PnL

+$4.61

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$11.3

Value

$11.3

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.96

PnL

+$0.66

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$7.69

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.55

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.84

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$1.45

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.61

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.87

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.03

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.25

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.11

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.