Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on November 7?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 37¢ · $509 held · ends Nov 7

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$508.58

Combined PnL

$49.28

Smart Money Entry

36.3¢ → 36.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$194.53

Total Shares668

Combined PnL+$61.25

No6 traders

Total Value$314.04

Total Shares518

Combined PnL-$11.98

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$132.68	$189.79	+$57.11	37% 891-1523 (2414)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 68.5¢	$182.39	$179.51	-$2.88	56% 777-601 (1378)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$56.18	$56.01	-$6.47	54% 10711-9227 (19938)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 63.9¢	$50.76	$46.45	-$4.31	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65.8¢	$18.34	$14.53	+$3.23	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$12.59	$11.69	-$0.9	13% 583-3823 (4406)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 65¢	$6.5	$5.84	-$0.66	26% 7398-21204 (28602)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.1	$2.75	+$2.65	28% 3011-7807 (10818)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.5	$2	+$1.5	42% 2415-3350 (5765)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$132.68

Value

$189.79

PnL

+$57.11

Record

37%

891-1523 (2414)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$182.39

Value

$179.51

PnL

-$2.88

Record

56%

777-601 (1378)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$56.18

Value

$56.01

PnL

-$6.47

Record

54%

10711-9227 (19938)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$50.76

Value

$46.45

PnL

-$4.31

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.34

Value

$14.53

PnL

+$3.23

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$12.59

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$0.9

Record

13%

583-3823 (4406)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$5.84

PnL

-$0.66

Record

26%

7398-21204 (28602)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$2.65

Record

28%

3011-7807 (10818)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

PnL

+$1.5

Record

42%

2415-3350 (5765)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.