Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on November 7?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $102 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$102.19
$2
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $56.41 | $57.82 | +$1.41 | 53% 24340-21400 (45740) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $16.4 | $17.43 | +$0.54 | 58% 21687-15792 (37479) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $22.85 | $17 | -$0.2 | 28% 3035-7859 (10894) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $9.69 | $9.94 | +$0.25 | 26% 7407-21213 (28620) |
Invested
$56.41
Value
$57.82
PnL
+$1.41
Record
53%
24340-21400 (45740)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$17.43
PnL
+$0.54
Record
58%
21687-15792 (37479)
Invested
$22.85
Value
$17
PnL
-$0.2
Record
28%
3035-7859 (10894)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$9.94
PnL
+$0.25
Record
26%
7407-21213 (28620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.