Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on November 5?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$114.98
-$0.02
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.19 | $30.68 | -$0.01 | 76% 12747-3983 (16730) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | -$0 | 49% 8853-9361 (18214) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $21.41 | $21.41 | -$0 | 47% 8377-9565 (17942) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.98 | -$0 | 53% 22809-20010 (42819) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.94 | $12.93 | -$0.01 | 59% 11998-8445 (20443) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$39.19
Value
$30.68
PnL
-$0.01
Record
76%
12747-3983 (16730)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
8853-9361 (18214)
Invested
$21.41
Value
$21.41
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
8377-9565 (17942)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
22809-20010 (42819)
Invested
$12.94
Value
$12.93
PnL
-$0.01
Record
59%
11998-8445 (20443)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.