Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 1 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on November 5?

1 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (7%) · Yes at 35¢ · $592 held · ends Nov 5

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 7%

Total Value

$591.6

Combined PnL

$19.54

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 14 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$286.89

Total Shares821

Combined PnL+$19.82

No13 traders

Total Value$304.71

Total Shares434

Combined PnL-$0.28

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 30.1¢	$850.66	$286.89	+$19.82	41% 825-1210 (2035)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$81.25	$79.91	-$3.01	56% 664-524 (1188)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$43.12	$43.52	-$0.48	53% 3933-3494 (7427)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$42.54	$34.42	-$1.56	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 68¢	$28.53	$26.38	-$2.15	48% 2184-2398 (4582)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$25.47	$21.51	+$1.57	76% 13050-4194 (17244)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$17.17	$21	+$3.83	47% 8497-9689 (18186)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 68¢	$40	$20	-$1.6	14% 508-3080 (3588)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$11.45	$14	+$2.55	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$13.59	$13.64	+$0.05	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$12.93	$12.83	-$0.1	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$8.98	$9.07	+$0.09	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 60¢	$7.5	$5.06	+$0.56	27% 6994-19119 (26113)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 68¢	$5	$3.38	-$0.03	44% 2229-2873 (5102)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$850.66

Value

$286.89

PnL

+$19.82

Record

41%

825-1210 (2035)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$81.25

Value

$79.91

PnL

-$3.01

Record

56%

664-524 (1188)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$43.12

Value

$43.52

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

3933-3494 (7427)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.54

Value

$34.42

PnL

-$1.56

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$28.53

Value

$26.38

PnL

-$2.15

Record

48%

2184-2398 (4582)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$25.47

Value

$21.51

PnL

+$1.57

Record

76%

13050-4194 (17244)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$17.17

Value

$21

PnL

+$3.83

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.6

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.45

Value

$14

PnL

+$2.55

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$13.59

Value

$13.64

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$12.93

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$8.98

Value

$9.07

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.56

Record

27%

6994-19119 (26113)

123987456<$100

Invested

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.03

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 14 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.