Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on November 5?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 91¢ · $480 held · ends Nov 5

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 13%

Total Value

$480.24

Combined PnL

$214.6

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$437.82

Total Shares492

Combined PnL+$210.93

No7 traders

Total Value$42.39

Total Shares222

Combined PnL+$3.67

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 45.2¢	$246.77	$437.82	+$210.93	40% 830-1231 (2061)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$20	$11.4	-$8.6	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 4.1¢	$5.72	$10.21	+$17.45	47% 1725-1919 (3644)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 52.2¢	$20.48	$5.16	-$5.6	75% 13139-4322 (17461)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 35.3¢	$18.01	$4.96	+$4.28	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$7.5	$3.71	-$0.04	43% 2237-2912 (5149)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$7.5	$3.71	-$0.49	27% 7006-19139 (26145)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$6.58	$3.24	-$3.34	58% 12069-8702 (20771)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$246.77

Value

$437.82

PnL

+$210.93

Record

40%

830-1231 (2061)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$8.6

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$10.21

PnL

+$17.45

Record

47%

1725-1919 (3644)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$20.48

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$5.6

Record

75%

13139-4322 (17461)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.01

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$4.28

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$3.71

PnL

-$0.04

Record

43%

2237-2912 (5149)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$3.71

PnL

-$0.49

Record

27%

7006-19139 (26145)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$6.58

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$3.34

Record

58%

12069-8702 (20771)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.