Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on November 2?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $42 held · ended Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$41.64

Combined PnL

$0.06

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$41.52

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$0.05

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.89	$13.87	-$0.02	37% 1395-2381 (3776)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$12.43	$12.47	+$0.04	36% 635-1125 (1760)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.04	$10.03	-$0.01	56% 3737-2986 (6723)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.15	$5.15	+$0.01	37% 758-1274 (2032)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.1	$0.06	+$0.08	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.08	$0.05	-$0.03	41% 943-1365 (2308)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.01	42% 1898-2621 (4519)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$13.89

Value

$13.87

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

1395-2381 (3776)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$12.43

Value

$12.47

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$10.04

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

56%

3737-2986 (6723)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

42%

1898-2621 (4519)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.