Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on November 2?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 2

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$107.45

Combined PnL

$3.02

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$107.45

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$3.02

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.7¢	$55.57	$40.33	+$0.42	57% 17245-12903 (30148)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$38.54	$39.29	+$0.75	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$9.38	$9.86	+$0.48	37% 1393-2380 (3773)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$5.04	$4.97	-$0.07	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.64	$4.41	-$0.24	36% 635-1125 (1760)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$3.41	$4.31	+$0.9	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$3.52	$4.28	+$0.76	46% 1569-1829 (3398)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$55.57

Value

$40.33

PnL

+$0.42

Record

57%

17245-12903 (30148)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$38.54

Value

$39.29

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.38

Value

$9.86

PnL

+$0.48

Record

37%

1393-2380 (3773)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.07

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$0.24

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.41

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.9

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$0.76

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.