Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or below on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $27 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$26.54

Combined PnL

-$29.72

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$26.22

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$0

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares312

Combined PnL-$29.72

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$26.22	$26.22	+$0	99% 1609-24 (1633)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.28	$0.16	-$14.12	24% 788-2560 (3348)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.53	$0.05	-$4.48	29% 308-740 (1048)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.64	$0.04	-$3.6	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.45	$0.03	-$2.43	17% 858-4055 (4913)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.16	$0.01	-$1.14	28% 3298-8406 (11704)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.88	$0.01	-$3.15	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.28	$0.01	-$0.27	25% 1356-4124 (5480)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.45	36% 1626-2854 (4480)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.09	$0	-$0.09	42% 5212-7125 (12337)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$26.22

Value

$26.22

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.28

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$14.12

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.53

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.48

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.6

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.43

Record

17%

858-4055 (4913)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.14

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.88

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.15

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.27

Record

25%

1356-4124 (5480)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1626-2854 (4480)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

PnL

-$0.09

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.