Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on November 15?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $95 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$94.91

Combined PnL

-$5.41

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$89.16

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$4.23

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.74

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$9.64

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98¢	$32.84	$33.43	+$0.59	50% 919-925 (1844)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$23.77	$25.7	+$1.94	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98¢	$14.8	$15.06	+$0.26	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$7.01	$8	+$0.99	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93¢	$6.51	$6.98	+$0.47	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.27	$4.74	-$9.35	24% 788-2560 (3348)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.8	$0.64	-$0.16	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0.22	$0.16	-$0.06	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0.22	$0.16	-$0.06	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0.05	$0.04	-$0.01	51% 945-892 (1837)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$32.84

Value

$33.43

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

$25.7

PnL

+$1.94

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$15.06

PnL

+$0.26

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

PnL

+$0.99

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.27

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$9.35

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.16

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.06

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.