Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on November 15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 0.3¢ · $317 held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$316.9

Combined PnL

$116.42

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$316.52

Total Shares326

Combined PnL+$167.93

No8 traders

Total Value$0.37

Total Shares165

Combined PnL-$51.51

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 30.2¢	$81.13	$260.31	+$179.18	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 77.6¢	$49.05	$36.81	-$12.24	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$18.4	$19.4	+$1	41% 276-405 (681)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 6.3¢	$3.07	$0.12	-$2.95	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$31.82	$0.08	-$31.74	42% 803-1100 (1903)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$74.52	$0.05	-$6.91	29% 308-740 (1048)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.05	+$0.92	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$8.2	$0.02	-$8.18	33% 83-166 (249)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.13	$0.02	-$0.11	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$0.96	$0.02	-$0.95	49% 854-884 (1738)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$5.98	$0.01	-$1.6	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$81.13

Value

$260.31

PnL

+$179.18

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.05

Value

$36.81

PnL

-$12.24

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.4

Value

$19.4

PnL

+$1

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$3.07

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.95

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$31.82

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$31.74

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$74.52

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$6.91

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.92

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$8.18

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.95

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$5.98

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.