Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C or higher on November 14?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 55¢ · $99 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$98.84
$52.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 38.5¢ | $433.91 | $47.68 | +$53.12 | 57% 1051-778 (1829) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 51.8¢ | $12.01 | $12.06 | +$0.05 | 31% 155-351 (506) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 53.9¢ | $10.78 | $10.92 | +$0.14 | 37% 467-800 (1267) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 52.3¢ | $6.69 | $6.88 | +$0.19 | 36% 85-149 (234) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 53.4¢ | $7.05 | $6.86 | -$0.19 | 53% 6319-5588 (11907) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 52.3¢ | $6.83 | $6.79 | -$0.04 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $5.63 | $5.05 | -$0.58 | 53% 1117-973 (2090) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 53.4¢ | $2.67 | $2.6 | -$0.07 | 61% 2175-1410 (3585) |
Invested
$433.91
Value
$47.68
PnL
+$53.12
Record
57%
1051-778 (1829)
Invested
$12.01
Value
$12.06
PnL
+$0.05
Record
31%
155-351 (506)
Invested
$10.78
Value
$10.92
PnL
+$0.14
Record
37%
467-800 (1267)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$6.69
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$0.19
Record
36%
85-149 (234)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$6.86
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
6319-5588 (11907)
Invested
$6.83
Value
$6.79
PnL
-$0.04
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$5.63
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.58
Record
53%
1117-973 (2090)
Invested
$2.67
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$0.07
Record
61%
2175-1410 (3585)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.