Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$99.8

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 45.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,209

Combined PnL+$84.31

No3 traders

Total Value$86.48

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$15.49

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 43.4¢	$452.97	$474.9	+$21.93	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$267.01	$326.15	+$59.14	56% 1073-841 (1914)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 43.2¢	$107.05	$112.84	+$5.79	38% 543-874 (1417)
Haradwaith	Noavg 56.1¢	$150.86	$68.79	+$17.18	30% 108-251 (359)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$39.95	$38.68	-$1.27	39% 12-19 (31)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.2¢	$25.4	$25.03	-$0.37	73% 778-291 (1069)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.5¢	$18.99	$18.19	-$0.8	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 59¢	$10.47	$9.67	-$0.8	27% 197-540 (737)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.1	-$0.1	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$18.93	$8.02	-$0.89	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$452.97

Value

$474.9

PnL

+$21.93

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$267.01

Value

$326.15

PnL

+$59.14

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.05

Value

$112.84

PnL

+$5.79

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

Haradwaith

Invested

$150.86

Value

$68.79

PnL

+$17.18

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.95

Value

$38.68

PnL

-$1.27

Record

39%

12-19 (31)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.4

Value

$25.03

PnL

-$0.37

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.99

Value

$18.19

PnL

-$0.8

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$10.47

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$0.8

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.93

Value

$8.02

PnL

-$0.89

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.