Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on November 14?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 37¢ · $282 held · ends Nov 14

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$282.26

Combined PnL

$105.1

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 37¢

-29% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$170.4

Total Shares270

Combined PnL+$112.01

No9 traders

Total Value$111.85

Total Shares226

Combined PnL-$6.9

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 28.9¢	$38.83	$96.83	+$60.35	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$61.15	$73.57	+$51.65	40% 657-989 (1646)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$27.43	$26.34	+$1.21	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 48.8¢	$18.29	$20.03	+$1.74	52% 1708-1554 (3262)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 84¢	$29.68	$17.7	-$2.53	31% 165-364 (529)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$11.2	$15.1	+$3.9	38% 17-28 (45)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$21.22	$13.68	-$7.54	34% 234-460 (694)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$14.73	$10.47	-$4.26	35% 250-467 (717)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 22.6¢	$3.03	$3.81	+$0.79	57% 703-521 (1224)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.51	$2.96	-$0.55	72% 865-339 (1204)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$1.41	$1.75	+$0.34	49% 755-800 (1555)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.83

Value

$96.83

PnL

+$60.35

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.15

Value

$73.57

PnL

+$51.65

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$27.43

Value

$26.34

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.29

Value

$20.03

PnL

+$1.74

Record

52%

1708-1554 (3262)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$29.68

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$2.53

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$15.1

PnL

+$3.9

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$21.22

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$7.54

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$14.73

Value

$10.47

PnL

-$4.26

Record

35%

250-467 (717)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.79

Record

57%

703-521 (1224)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$2.96

PnL

-$0.55

Record

72%

865-339 (1204)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

755-800 (1555)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.