Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 79¢ · $224 held · ends Nov 13

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$223.89

Combined PnL

-$2.53

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 78.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$173.09

Total Shares222

Combined PnL-$1.83

Yes3 traders

Total Value$50.8

Total Shares240

Combined PnL-$0.7

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$93	$93.6	+$0.6	51% 4764-4566 (9330)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$38.43	$38.13	-$0.3	55% 683-554 (1237)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$35.1	$33.6	-$1.5	59% 1029-712 (1741)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$23.6	$21.84	-$1.76	13% 28-182 (210)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80¢	$16	$15.6	-$0.4	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$12.6	$12.9	+$0.3	68% 2107-991 (3098)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$3.8	$4.3	+$0.5	34% 356-690 (1046)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.93	+$0.03	38% 3372-5405 (8777)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$93

Value

$93.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

51%

4764-4566 (9330)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.43

Value

$38.13

PnL

-$0.3

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.1

Value

$33.6

PnL

-$1.5

Record

59%

1029-712 (1741)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$23.6

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$1.76

Record

13%

28-182 (210)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

68%

2107-991 (3098)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.5

Record

34%

356-690 (1046)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

3372-5405 (8777)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.