Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 13?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $417 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$417.15
$28.8
71¢ → 79.5¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $279.89 | $293.89 | +$14 | 59% 1029-712 (1741) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $78.97 | $91.19 | +$12.22 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $19.83 | $11.43 | +$1.49 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $8.03 | $8.64 | +$0.61 | 34% 356-690 (1046) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.71 | $8.07 | +$0.36 | 68% 2107-991 (3098) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $3.93 | +$0.13 | 38% 3372-5405 (8777) |
Invested
$279.89
Value
$293.89
PnL
+$14
Record
59%
1029-712 (1741)
balthazar<$100Invested
$78.97
Value
$91.19
PnL
+$12.22
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
Invested
$19.83
Value
$11.43
PnL
+$1.49
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$8.03
Value
$8.64
PnL
+$0.61
Record
34%
356-690 (1046)
Invested
$7.71
Value
$8.07
PnL
+$0.36
Record
68%
2107-991 (3098)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$0.13
Record
38%
3372-5405 (8777)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.