Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on November 12?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $511 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$510.9

Combined PnL

-$27.81

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$510.74

Total Shares511

Combined PnL+$0.26

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.16

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$28.06

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$499.5	$499.75	+$0.25	99% 649-8 (657)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.99	$10.99	+$0.01	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.18	$0.11	-$19.08	58% 1038-742 (1780)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.32	$0.01	-$2.31	28% 527-1382 (1909)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.08	$0.01	-$0.06	48% 481-525 (1006)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.12	$0.01	-$2.11	44% 1109-1423 (2532)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.01	-$2.7	30% 2950-6939 (9889)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$499.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.99

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.18

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$19.08

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.31

Record

28%

527-1382 (1909)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

481-525 (1006)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.11

Record

44%

1109-1423 (2532)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.7

Record

30%

2950-6939 (9889)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.