Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on November 12?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $165 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$165.1
-$32.17
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $164.84 | $164.92 | +$0.08 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $19.18 | $0.11 | -$19.08 | 59% 1032-714 (1746) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.68 | $0.03 | -$4.66 | 28% 113-285 (398) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.32 | $0.01 | -$2.31 | 28% 525-1353 (1878) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.12 | $0.01 | -$2.11 | 45% 1109-1383 (2492) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.85 | $0.01 | -$1.84 | 28% 530-1372 (1902) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.46 | $0 | -$0.46 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
Invested
$164.84
Value
$164.92
PnL
+$0.08
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$19.08
Record
59%
1032-714 (1746)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.66
Record
28%
113-285 (398)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.31
Record
28%
525-1353 (1878)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.11
Record
45%
1109-1383 (2492)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.84
Record
28%
530-1372 (1902)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.46
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.