Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on November 12?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$85.14
-$32.19
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $84.9 | $84.96 | +$0.06 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $19.18 | $0.11 | -$19.08 | 59% 1032-714 (1746) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.68 | $0.03 | -$4.66 | 28% 113-285 (398) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.32 | $0.01 | -$2.31 | 28% 525-1353 (1878) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.12 | $0.01 | -$2.11 | 45% 1109-1383 (2492) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.85 | $0.01 | -$1.84 | 28% 530-1372 (1902) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.46 | $0 | -$0.46 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
Invested
$84.9
Value
$84.96
PnL
+$0.06
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$19.08
Record
59%
1032-714 (1746)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.66
Record
28%
113-285 (398)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.31
Record
28%
525-1353 (1878)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.11
Record
45%
1109-1383 (2492)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.84
Record
28%
530-1372 (1902)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.46
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.