Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on November 12?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 86¢ · $827 held · ends Nov 12

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$826.91

Combined PnL

$19.31

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 85.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$648.93

Total Shares759

Combined PnL+$24.58

No5 traders

Total Value$21.07

Total Shares142

Combined PnL-$5.27

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 82.9¢	$461.48	$475.91	+$14.43	68% 2062-949 (3011)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 81¢	$153.9	$162.45	+$8.55	30% 258-593 (851)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 68.3¢	$141.21	$156.91	+$15.7	59% 1019-705 (1724)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.3¢	$91.23	$114.28	+$23.05
└ No leg	Noavg 17¢	$49.98	$42.63	-$7.35
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 72.5¢	$8.97	$10.58	+$1.61	54% 493-423 (916)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$9.61	$7.32	-$2.29	22% 80-280 (360)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$4.34	$3.7	-$0.64	27% 499-1348 (1847)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$4.33	$3.7	-$0.64	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$4.6	$3.4	-$1.2	53% 5602-5022 (10624)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$3.46	$2.95	-$0.51	28% 522-1370 (1892)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$461.48

Value

$475.91

PnL

+$14.43

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$153.9

Value

$162.45

PnL

+$8.55

Record

30%

258-593 (851)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$141.21

Value

$156.91

PnL

+$15.7

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

Both legs:

Yes$91.2368.3¢+$23.05

No$49.9817¢-$7.35

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.97

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$1.61

Record

54%

493-423 (916)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$9.61

Value

$7.32

PnL

-$2.29

Record

22%

80-280 (360)

klli27CTR<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.64

Record

27%

499-1348 (1847)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.64

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

5602-5022 (10624)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.51

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.