Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $154 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$154.5
$0.08
78.4¢ → 79¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $85.12 | $87.57 | +$2.45 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.61 | $16.01 | +$0.4 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $16.82 | $16 | -$0.82 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $15.6 | -$0.8 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $16.52 | $15.28 | -$1.24 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.95 | $4.05 | +$0.1 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
Invested
$85.12
Value
$87.57
PnL
+$2.45
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$15.61
Value
$16.01
PnL
+$0.4
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$16.82
Value
$16
PnL
-$0.82
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$15.6
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$16.52
Value
$15.28
PnL
-$1.24
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.1
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.