Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$118.95
-$0.59
99.9¢ → 99.3¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 46%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.96 | $29.79 | -$0.17 | 29% 871-2138 (3009) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.47 | $25.32 | -$0.15 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $23.28 | $23.14 | -$0.14 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.49 | $20.49 | +$0 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.33 | $20.21 | -$0.12 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
Invested
$29.96
Value
$29.79
PnL
-$0.17
Record
29%
871-2138 (3009)
Invested
$25.47
Value
$25.32
PnL
-$0.15
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$23.28
Value
$23.14
PnL
-$0.14
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$20.49
Value
$20.49
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Invested
$20.33
Value
$20.21
PnL
-$0.12
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.