Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $301 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$300.62
-$1.24
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $315.41 | $259.02 | -$56.39 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 87.8¢ | $173.8 | $130.68 | -$43.12 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $141.61 | $128.34 | -$13.27 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $13.14 | $15.33 | +$2.19 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $15.46 | $14.07 | -$1.39 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.6¢ | $21.8 | $4.43 | -$3.15 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $3.35 | $3.91 | +$0.56 | 45% 306-367 (673) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $3.85 | +$0.55 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
Invested
$315.41
Value
$259.02
PnL
-$56.39
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$13.14
Value
$15.33
PnL
+$2.19
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$15.46
Value
$14.07
PnL
-$1.39
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$21.8
Value
$4.43
PnL
-$3.15
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$0.56
Record
45%
306-367 (673)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$0.55
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.