Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $314 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$313.87
-$5.14
87.7¢ → 95.3¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $211.29 | $196.8 | -$14.49 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $94.98 | $103.18 | +$8.21 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.27 | $4.72 | +$0.46 | 40% 329-494 (823) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $4.65 | +$0.45 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $9.05 | $4.5 | +$0.24 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$211.29
Value
$196.8
PnL
-$14.49
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$94.98
Value
$103.18
PnL
+$8.21
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$4.72
PnL
+$0.46
Record
40%
329-494 (823)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.45
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$9.05
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$0.24
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.