Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$75.5
-$4.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.42 | -$0.43 | 99% 212-1 (213) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $10.02 | $10.01 | -$0 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $9.73 | $9.88 | +$0.15 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.96 | +$0.01 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $4.5 | $1.12 | -$3.38 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $0.46 | $0.09 | -$0.37 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.42
PnL
-$0.43
Record
99%
212-1 (213)
balthazar<$100Invested
$10.02
Value
$10.01
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$9.88
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.96
PnL
+$0.01
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$1.12
PnL
-$3.38
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$0.37
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.