Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on November 11?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $84 held · ended Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$83.84

Combined PnL

-$0.06

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$83.8

Total Shares84

Combined PnL-$0.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$0.02

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.87	$49.85	-$0.02	48% 337-362 (699)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.99	$11.98	-$0.01	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	-$0	47% 353-400 (753)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$7	$7	+$0	99% 268-2 (270)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.99	$4.99	+$0	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.04	$0.02	-$0.02	41% 688-988 (1676)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.01	45% 374-466 (840)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$49.87

Value

$49.85

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

337-362 (699)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.99

Value

$11.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

353-400 (753)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

268-2 (270)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

688-988 (1676)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

374-466 (840)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.