Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on November 11?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $88 held · ended Nov 11

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$88.2

Combined PnL

$0.07

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$88.2

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$0.07

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$25.53	$25.47	-$0.06	43% 383-513 (896)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.72	$19.76	+$0.04	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$11.89	$11.83	-$0.06	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$10.01	$10.01	+$0	45% 374-466 (840)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$19.78	$9.74	+$0.14	54% 553-471 (1024)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5	$5.01	+$0.01	99% 268-2 (270)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.96	+$0.01	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99¢	$1.42	$1.41	-$0.01	41% 688-988 (1676)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$25.53

Value

$25.47

PnL

-$0.06

Record

43%

383-513 (896)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.72

Value

$19.76

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.89

Value

$11.83

PnL

-$0.06

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.01

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

374-466 (840)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$9.74

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

268-2 (270)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

688-988 (1676)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.