Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $432 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$432.22
$38.7
73.7¢ → 69.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $350.55 | $386.13 | +$35.58 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $16.33 | $16.33 | +$0 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $15.3 | $14.81 | -$0.49 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $13.45 | $10.4 | +$3.61 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.1 | +$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
Invested
$350.55
Value
$386.13
PnL
+$35.58
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.33
Value
$16.33
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$14.81
PnL
-$0.49
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$13.45
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$3.61
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.