Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on November 10?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$79.97
$1.84
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $44.26 | $45.68 | +$1.42 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $29.58 | $29.79 | +$0.21 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $3.98 | $3.98 | +$0 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.19 | $0.37 | +$0.18 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.12 | $0.15 | +$0.03 | 30% 174-414 (588) |
Invested
$44.26
Value
$45.68
PnL
+$1.42
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$29.58
Value
$29.79
PnL
+$0.21
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$3.98
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.37
PnL
+$0.18
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.03
Record
30%
174-414 (588)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.