Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on November 10?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$158.91
$1.85
96¢ → 96¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $116.47 | $118.1 | +$1.63 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $28.45 | $29.28 | +$0.83 | 6% 18-276 (294) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $14.09 | $4.99 | -$0.14 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $3.9 | $3.9 | +$0 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.46 | -$0.04 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $0.61 | $0.18 | -$0.43 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
Invested
$116.47
Value
$118.1
PnL
+$1.63
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$28.45
Value
$29.28
PnL
+$0.83
Record
6%
18-276 (294)
Invested
$14.09
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$0.14
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$0.04
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.43
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.