Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C on November 10?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 64¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 10

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$287.06

Combined PnL

$183.67

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$240.61

Total Shares488

Combined PnL+$202.28

No6 traders

Total Value$46.45

Total Shares73

Combined PnL-$18.61

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 7.3¢	$34.11	$230.75	+$196.64	23% 149-503 (652)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$28.57	$15.21	-$13.36	25% 806-2476 (3282)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$23.04	$13.74	-$4.26	52% 244-227 (471)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.1¢	$4.22	$9.86	+$5.64	66% 4051-2062 (6113)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 59¢	$8.83	$9.54	+$0.71	36% 173-306 (479)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 69.7¢	$3.58	$3.96	+$0.37	36% 156-274 (430)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$3.61	$2.03	-$1.58	28% 2422-6146 (8568)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$2.47	$1.97	-$0.5	88% 434-59 (493)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$34.11

Value

$230.75

PnL

+$196.64

Record

23%

149-503 (652)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$28.57

Value

$15.21

PnL

-$13.36

Record

25%

806-2476 (3282)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.04

Value

$13.74

PnL

-$4.26

Record

52%

244-227 (471)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.22

Value

$9.86

PnL

+$5.64

Record

66%

4051-2062 (6113)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.83

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$0.71

Record

36%

173-306 (479)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.58

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.37

Record

36%

156-274 (430)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.61

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$1.58

Record

28%

2422-6146 (8568)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$2.47

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.5

Record

88%

434-59 (493)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.2%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.