Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on October 31?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 30¢ · $379 held · ended Oct 31

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$378.61

Combined PnL

$128.84

Smart Money Entry

9.1¢ → 30¢

+230% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$243.65

Total Shares1,150

Combined PnL+$139.64

No3 traders

Total Value$134.96

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$10.79

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$101.13	$242.52	+$141.38	47% 675-754 (1429)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$69.84	$59.52	-$10.32	59% 1828-1274 (3102)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 87.9¢	$145.02	$52.89	-$4.76	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 77¢	$18.26	$22.55	+$4.29	53% 6559-5774 (12333)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$2.89	$1.14	-$1.75	55% 417-345 (762)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$101.13

Value

$242.52

PnL

+$141.38

Record

47%

675-754 (1429)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$69.84

Value

$59.52

PnL

-$10.32

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

ghorrock

Invested

$145.02

Value

$52.89

PnL

-$4.76

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$18.26

Value

$22.55

PnL

+$4.29

Record

53%

6559-5774 (12333)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.89

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$1.75

Record

55%

417-345 (762)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.