Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on October 31?

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 33¢ · $971 held · ends Oct 31

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$970.62

Combined PnL

-$5.13

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$62.24

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$1.7

No1 trader

Total Value$12.88

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$3.43

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$771.38	$666.97	+$164.95	47% 641-724 (1365)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.5¢	$412.31	$463.57	+$51.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.1¢	$89.62	$203.4	+$113.74
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 65¢	$287.18	$228.53	-$9.52	21% 300-1130 (1430)
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$148.57	$153.11	+$4.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.7¢	$83.78	$75.42	-$14.13
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 32.7¢	$63.04	$62.24	-$1.7	59% 1738-1204 (2942)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$25.02	$12.88	-$3.43	57% 13591-10418 (24009)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$771.38

Value

$666.97

PnL

+$164.95

Record

47%

641-724 (1365)

Both legs:

No$412.3160.5¢+$51.21

Yes$89.6214.1¢+$113.74

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$287.18

Value

$228.53

PnL

-$9.52

Record

21%

300-1130 (1430)

Both legs:

No$148.5765¢+$4.61

Yes$83.7836.7¢-$14.13

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.04

Value

$62.24

PnL

-$1.7

Record

59%

1738-1204 (2942)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.02

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$3.43

Record

57%

13591-10418 (24009)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.