Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 30?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 51¢ · $413 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$412.83
$32.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $123.45 | $154.53 | +$31.09 | 59% 1727-1194 (2921) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 74.5¢ | $173.52 | $112.28 | -$54.16 | 21% 296-1116 (1412) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $70.57 | $84.69 | +$14.11 | 56% 358-287 (645) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $20.24 | $61.33 | +$41.73 | 62% 1438-883 (2321) |
Invested
$123.45
Value
$154.53
PnL
+$31.09
Record
59%
1727-1194 (2921)
IstarothInvested
$173.52
Value
$112.28
PnL
-$54.16
Record
21%
296-1116 (1412)
Invested
$70.57
Value
$84.69
PnL
+$14.11
Record
56%
358-287 (645)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$20.24
Value
$61.33
PnL
+$41.73
Record
62%
1438-883 (2321)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.