Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 29?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 22¢ · $489 held · ends Oct 29

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$489.26

Combined PnL

$25.6

Smart Money Entry

12.4¢ → 21.5¢

+73% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$278.66

Total Shares2,033

Combined PnL+$25.65

No3 traders

Total Value$210.61

Total Shares240

Combined PnL-$0.05

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 11.6¢	$189.16	$229.19	+$40.03	51% 602-578 (1180)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 85.2¢	$160.17	$165.48	-$2.22	55% 316-255 (571)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$63.85	$49.46	-$14.38	60% 1659-1119 (2778)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$62.09	$40.44	+$1.96	57% 13329-10181 (23510)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.48	$4.69	+$0.21	53% 6396-5599 (11995)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$189.16

Value

$229.19

PnL

+$40.03

Record

51%

602-578 (1180)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$160.17

Value

$165.48

PnL

-$2.22

Record

55%

316-255 (571)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.85

Value

$49.46

PnL

-$14.38

Record

60%

1659-1119 (2778)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$62.09

Value

$40.44

PnL

+$1.96

Record

57%

13329-10181 (23510)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

6396-5599 (11995)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.