Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 29?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 75¢ · $956 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
2 arb excluded
$955.73
$25.25
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $392.54 | $398.95 | +$8.11 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $217.7 | $275 | +$57.31 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.7¢ | $173.25 | $123.95 | -$49.2 | |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 50.1¢ | $273.2 | $342.3 | +$69.1 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.1¢ | $181.46 | $271.45 | +$89.99 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 32.4¢ | $91.74 | $70.85 | -$20.88 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 61¢ | $159.73 | $186.03 | +$14.51 | 55% 320-260 (580) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $68.15 | $16.22 | +$6.04 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 29.6¢ | $13.28 | $12.23 | +$4.7 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$392.54
Value
$398.95
PnL
+$8.11
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Both legs:
Invested
$273.2
Value
$342.3
PnL
+$69.1
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
Both legs:
Invested
$159.73
Value
$186.03
PnL
+$14.51
Record
55%
320-260 (580)
Invested
$68.15
Value
$16.22
PnL
+$6.04
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$12.23
PnL
+$4.7
Record
57%
13340-10198 (23538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.