Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$16.09
70.8¢ → 79¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $695.34 | $708.16 | +$12.82 | 51% 587-559 (1146) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $308.58 | $299.58 | -$9 | 50% 1654-1641 (3295) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $50.97 | $69.03 | +$18.05 | 62% 1434-876 (2310) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $21.28 | $20.59 | -$0.69 | 60% 1599-1049 (2648) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $14.02 | $6.18 | -$5.09 | 57% 13137-10012 (23149) |
Invested
$695.34
Value
$708.16
PnL
+$12.82
Record
51%
587-559 (1146)
Invested
$308.58
Value
$299.58
PnL
-$9
Record
50%
1654-1641 (3295)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$50.97
Value
$69.03
PnL
+$18.05
Record
62%
1434-876 (2310)
Invested
$21.28
Value
$20.59
PnL
-$0.69
Record
60%
1599-1049 (2648)
Invested
$14.02
Value
$6.18
PnL
-$5.09
Record
57%
13137-10012 (23149)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.