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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$32.83
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares207
Combined PnL-$32.83
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 20%No — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $9.11 | — | -$32.83 | 60% 1629-1089 (2718) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20749-13168 (33917) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6367-5579 (11946) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13241-10089 (23330) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | — | — | +$0 | 25% 283-869 (1152) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$9.11
Value
—
PnL
-$32.83
Record
60%
1629-1089 (2718)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20749-13168 (33917)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6367-5579 (11946)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13241-10089 (23330)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
283-869 (1152)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x08d941f4...771e17
Slug
highest-temperature-in-amsterdam-on-october-28-2026-16c