Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 28?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 67¢ · $2K held

Yes67¢No33¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$15.03

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 66.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,988

Combined PnL-$15.5

No2 traders

Total Value$22.69

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$0.47

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 63.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$40.6	50% 1627-1615 (3242)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 64.4¢	$471.93	$458.73	-$7.12	31% 273-604 (877)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.4¢	$295.46	$284.41	-$11.43
└ No leg	Noavg 37¢	$169.85	$174.32	+$4.31
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 62.1¢	$402.82	$427.92	+$25.1	52% 563-526 (1089)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 35.5¢	$20.39	$21.39	+$0.95	61% 1532-972 (2504)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 35.2¢	$15.38	$1.3	-$0.48	53% 6241-5478 (11719)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$1,491.32

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$40.6

Record

50%

1627-1615 (3242)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$471.93

Value

$458.73

PnL

-$7.12

Record

31%

273-604 (877)

Both legs:

Yes$295.4664.4¢-$11.43

No$169.8537¢+$4.31

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$402.82

Value

$427.92

PnL

+$25.1

Record

52%

563-526 (1089)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$20.39

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$0.95

Record

61%

1532-972 (2504)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$15.38

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

6241-5478 (11719)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.