Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 69¢ · $423 held
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$423.4
-$5.32
72¢ → 68.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 71.2¢ | $164.17 | $150.72 | -$13.45 | 52% 556-511 (1067) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 75¢ | $104 | $100 | -$2.75 | 35% 273-515 (788) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $82.03 | $92.34 | +$10.32 | 61% 20465-12833 (33298) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $56.28 | $47.22 | +$0.49 | 53% 6207-5451 (11658) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $29.12 | $29.24 | +$0.12 | 61% 1506-947 (2453) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $3.92 | $3.88 | -$0.04 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
Invested
$164.17
Value
$150.72
PnL
-$13.45
Record
52%
556-511 (1067)
IstarothInvested
$104
Value
$100
PnL
-$2.75
Record
35%
273-515 (788)
balthazar<$100Invested
$82.03
Value
$92.34
PnL
+$10.32
Record
61%
20465-12833 (33298)
Invested
$56.28
Value
$47.22
PnL
+$0.49
Record
53%
6207-5451 (11658)
Invested
$29.12
Value
$29.24
PnL
+$0.12
Record
61%
1506-947 (2453)
Invested
$3.92
Value
$3.88
PnL
-$0.04
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.