Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 7°C on November 7?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 99¢ · $245 held · ended Nov 7

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$245

Combined PnL

-$0.86

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 98.8¢

+41% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$226.86

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$13.53

No5 traders

Total Value$18.14

Total Shares161

Combined PnL-$14.39

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011<$100	Yesavg 75.7¢	$57.93	$73.95	+$16.02	37% 4078-6817 (10895)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$64.72	$67.15	+$2.43	39% 1284-2050 (3334)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 47.8¢	$37.5	$37	-$0.5	13% 589-3866 (4455)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$9.83	$14.67	+$4.84	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 86.5¢	$15.29	$13.94	+$0.83	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$14.41	$9.24	-$3.93	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$7.2	$7.5	+$0.29	45% 1854-2248 (4102)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$7.2	$7.5	+$0.3	44% 2361-2972 (5333)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$5.5	$5.32	-$0.19	39% 2430-3869 (6299)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$7	$5.26	-$1.73	36% 1176-2127 (3303)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 33.2¢	$17.7	$1.49	-$16.21	53% 12757-11432 (24189)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 31.2¢	$5.08	$1.33	-$0.78	53% 4566-4056 (8622)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$1.4	$0.56	-$0.84	52% 31278-29168 (60446)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$1.49	$0.09	-$1.4	53% 24342-21404 (45746)

alex20011<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.93

Value

$73.95

PnL

+$16.02

Record

37%

4078-6817 (10895)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.72

Value

$67.15

PnL

+$2.43

Record

39%

1284-2050 (3334)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.5

Value

$37

PnL

-$0.5

Record

13%

589-3866 (4455)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$14.67

PnL

+$4.84

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.29

Value

$13.94

PnL

+$0.83

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.41

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$3.93

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.29

Record

45%

1854-2248 (4102)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$0.19

Record

39%

2430-3869 (6299)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$1.73

Record

36%

1176-2127 (3303)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$16.21

Record

53%

12757-11432 (24189)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

4566-4056 (8622)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.84

Record

52%

31278-29168 (60446)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.49

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.