Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 5°C on November 7?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $59 held · ended Nov 7

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$59.27

Combined PnL

$5.36

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$49.7

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0.47

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.56

Total Shares391

Combined PnL+$4.89

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$29.49	$30	+$0.39	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$19.62	$19.7	+$0.08	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$4.4	$9.5	+$5.1	38% 887-1421 (2308)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.89	$0.06	-$0.21	28% 3038-7860 (10898)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$29.49

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.62

Value

$19.7

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.4

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$5.1

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.89

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.21

Record

28%

3038-7860 (10898)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.