Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on November 5?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 92¢ · $425 held · ends Nov 5

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$425.4

Combined PnL

-$2.41

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 92¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$389.93

Total Shares426

Combined PnL+$3.93

Yes2 traders

Total Value$35.47

Total Shares418

Combined PnL-$6.34

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 92¢	$215.21	$196.92	-$1.08	56% 664-524 (1188)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$53.82	$40.6	+$1.66	76% 13009-4160 (17169)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$36.04	$35.89	-$0.15	39% 1093-1720 (2813)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$40.86	$34.67	-$6.2	43% 816-1062 (1878)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$33.23	$25.92	+$0.8	58% 20201-14846 (35047)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$23.57	$21.57	+$0.53	54% 10268-8884 (19152)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$16.93	$18.4	+$1.47	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$14.2	$14.09	-$0.11	47% 2245-2513 (4758)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$11.37	$11.23	-$0.13	47% 1706-1890 (3596)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$13.39	$9.2	-$0.09	31% 2661-5937 (8598)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$6.55	$6.46	-$0.09	50% 9890-9904 (19794)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 89¢	$6	$5.49	+$0.15	27% 6988-19089 (26077)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.19	$4.17	+$0.98	53% 3932-3491 (7423)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$0.94	$0.8	-$0.14	41% 2307-3348 (5655)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$215.21

Value

$196.92

PnL

-$1.08

Record

56%

664-524 (1188)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$53.82

Value

$40.6

PnL

+$1.66

Record

76%

13009-4160 (17169)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$36.04

Value

$35.89

PnL

-$0.15

Record

39%

1093-1720 (2813)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.86

Value

$34.67

PnL

-$6.2

Record

43%

816-1062 (1878)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.23

Value

$25.92

PnL

+$0.8

Record

58%

20201-14846 (35047)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.57

Value

$21.57

PnL

+$0.53

Record

54%

10268-8884 (19152)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.93

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$1.47

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.09

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

2245-2513 (4758)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.37

Value

$11.23

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

1706-1890 (3596)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$13.39

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.09

Record

31%

2661-5937 (8598)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

9890-9904 (19794)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0.15

Record

27%

6988-19089 (26077)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

3932-3491 (7423)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.14

Record

41%

2307-3348 (5655)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.