Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 16?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $692 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$692.11
$61.39
85.7¢ → 92¢
+7% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $306.34 | $345.23 | +$38.89 | 54% 1248-1069 (2317) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $186.66 | $205.04 | +$18.38 | 52% 2359-2143 (4502) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $74.4 | $75.2 | +$0.8 | 32% 1145-2481 (3626) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $17.9 | $20.59 | +$2.69 | 43% 855-1149 (2004) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $17.84 | $18.09 | +$0.25 | 53% 2407-2143 (4550) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $9.4 | -$0.2 | 39% 349-547 (896) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $8.81 | +$0.87 | 14% 110-655 (765) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $6.26 | $6.19 | -$0.07 | 18% 106-495 (601) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $8.44 | $3.45 | -$0.22 | 35% 3958-7409 (11367) |
Invested
$306.34
Value
$345.23
PnL
+$38.89
Record
54%
1248-1069 (2317)
Invested
$186.66
Value
$205.04
PnL
+$18.38
Record
52%
2359-2143 (4502)
Invested
$74.4
Value
$75.2
PnL
+$0.8
Record
32%
1145-2481 (3626)
Invested
$17.9
Value
$20.59
PnL
+$2.69
Record
43%
855-1149 (2004)
Invested
$17.84
Value
$18.09
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
2407-2143 (4550)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
39%
349-547 (896)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$17.6
Value
$8.81
PnL
+$0.87
Record
14%
110-655 (765)
Invested
$6.26
Value
$6.19
PnL
-$0.07
Record
18%
106-495 (601)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.44
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.22
Record
35%
3958-7409 (11367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.