Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 16?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 61¢ · $330 held · ends Nov 16

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$329.61

Combined PnL

$79.17

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 60.5¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$119.96

Total Shares343

Combined PnL+$25.13

No8 traders

Total Value$209.65

Total Shares343

Combined PnL+$54.04

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$84.17	$109.3	+$25.13	54% 1248-1069 (2317)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 52¢	$84.38	$98.98	+$14.6	65% 4393-2417 (6810)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$73.66	$62.76	+$7.89	14% 110-655 (765)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 54.9¢	$17.91	$20.05	+$2.14	43% 855-1149 (2004)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$10.66	$10.66	+$0	42% 62-86 (148)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$8.15	$8.81	+$0.66	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.2	$6.1	-$0.1	70% 985-425 (1410)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 58¢	$8.38	$5.49	+$1.84	35% 3958-7409 (11367)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 58¢	$3.9	$4.11	+$0.2	18% 106-495 (601)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 59¢	$58.73	$3.34	+$26.8	28% 3345-8619 (11964)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$84.17

Value

$109.3

PnL

+$25.13

Record

54%

1248-1069 (2317)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$84.38

Value

$98.98

PnL

+$14.6

Record

65%

4393-2417 (6810)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$73.66

Value

$62.76

PnL

+$7.89

Record

14%

110-655 (765)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$17.91

Value

$20.05

PnL

+$2.14

Record

43%

855-1149 (2004)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.66

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

62-86 (148)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.81

PnL

+$0.66

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

70%

985-425 (1410)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$8.38

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$1.84

Record

35%

3958-7409 (11367)

merod<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$0.2

Record

18%

106-495 (601)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$58.73

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$26.8

Record

28%

3345-8619 (11964)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.