Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 16?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 53¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 16

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$127.31

Combined PnL

$26.11

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$91.9

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$26.57

No4 traders

Total Value$35.4

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$0.46

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 45.6¢	$53.6	$42.02	+$10.29	54% 1248-1069 (2317)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$12.42	$21.6	+$9.18	14% 110-655 (765)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$17.2	$18	+$0.8	39% 349-547 (896)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 57.6¢	$17.92	$17.13	-$0.8	70% 985-425 (1410)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$13.82	$12.45	-$1.37	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$6.85	$8.19	+$1.34	52% 2359-2143 (4502)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.5	+$0.1	36% 381-683 (1064)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.73	$2.96	+$6.56	35% 3958-7409 (11367)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$0.44	$0.45	+$0.01	65% 4393-2417 (6810)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.6

Value

$42.02

PnL

+$10.29

Record

54%

1248-1069 (2317)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.42

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$9.18

Record

14%

110-655 (765)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$18

PnL

+$0.8

Record

39%

349-547 (896)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.92

Value

$17.13

PnL

-$0.8

Record

70%

985-425 (1410)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.82

Value

$12.45

PnL

-$1.37

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$8.19

PnL

+$1.34

Record

52%

2359-2143 (4502)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

381-683 (1064)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$6.56

Record

35%

3958-7409 (11367)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.01

Record

65%

4393-2417 (6810)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.