Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on November 15?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $141 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$141.28
-$2.35
87.6¢ → 90¢
+3% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $49.47 | $33.21 | +$0.53 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $58.99 | $28.04 | -$1.22 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $26.25 | $25.59 | -$0.66 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $17.4 | -$1 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.94 | $9.05 | +$0.1 | 50% 697-689 (1386) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $6.93 | $7.01 | +$0.08 | 49% 731-768 (1499) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $6.89 | $6.97 | +$0.08 | 48% 757-814 (1571) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $5.26 | $5.32 | +$0.06 | 58% 699-503 (1202) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.35 | -$0.25 | 42% 1621-2282 (3903) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.41 | $4.33 | -$0.08 | 46% 1071-1282 (2353) |
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$49.47
Value
$33.21
PnL
+$0.53
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$58.99
Value
$28.04
PnL
-$1.22
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$26.25
Value
$25.59
PnL
-$0.66
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$17.4
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$8.94
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
697-689 (1386)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
731-768 (1499)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$6.97
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
757-814 (1571)
Invested
$5.26
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
699-503 (1202)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.35
PnL
-$0.25
Record
42%
1621-2282 (3903)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$4.33
PnL
-$0.08
Record
46%
1071-1282 (2353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Haradwaith
No — $33.21
Lucerys
No — $28.04
ghorrock
No — $25.59
cigarettes
No — $17.4
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $9.05
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $7.01
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $6.97
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $5.32
haveagoodday
No — $4.35
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $4.33