Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 8°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$81.83

Combined PnL

-$11.58

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$79.95

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$0.34

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.87

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$11.24

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.76	$29.61	-$0.15	34% 231-458 (689)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.84	-$0.02	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$15.36	$15.27	-$0.09	58% 684-501 (1185)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$8	$7.96	-$0.05	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$6.07	$6.04	-$0.03	49% 736-769 (1505)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.56	$1.68	-$8.87	55% 1208-982 (2190)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$1.24	$1.23	-$0.01	50% 701-690 (1391)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.1	$0.14	+$0.04	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.32	$0.05	-$2.41	33% 220-451 (671)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.76

Value

$29.61

PnL

-$0.15

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.84

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$15.36

Value

$15.27

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

Value

$7.96

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.56

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$8.87

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.41

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.