Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 7°C on November 15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $99 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$99.3

Combined PnL

-$17.64

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$98.29

Total Shares99

Combined PnL-$3.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$14.21

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$45.03	$32.77	-$3.17	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.88	-$0.09	29% 232-564 (796)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.39	$10.34	-$0.05	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8	$7.96	-$0.04	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.11	$6.08	-$0.03	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.06	$5.05	-$0.02	50% 697-689 (1386)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.97	-$0.03	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.25	$1.24	-$0.01	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.56	$0.7	-$9.86	55% 1208-979 (2187)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.39	$0.16	-$2.23	26% 548-1574 (2122)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.27	$0.15	-$2.12	33% 220-451 (671)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$45.03

Value

$32.77

PnL

-$3.17

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$0.09

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.39

Value

$10.34

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

Value

$7.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.11

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.56

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$9.86

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.39

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$2.23

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.12

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.